Monday, February 15, 2010

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Now is the time to buy

Okay, not really. Bad joke. The rest of the country may slowly be rising from the depths of the Great Recession, but here in Bend and Deschutes County we haven’t even reached bottom yet.

That’s the latest word from the Bratton Appraisal Group which said that Bend hit a new post-boom low in January for the median price of a home: $189,000.

That’s less than half what it was at the peak in May 2007: $396,000.

In Redmond, it’s worse: The median price is now $120,000, down from a high of $289,000.

Ouch!

Pity those who bought at the peak and now are drowning under massive mortgage debt. (See earlier post about walking away from your "underwater" home). Deschutes County recorded 402 default notices alone in January. The daily newspaper’s classified section is filled each day with such notices. That’s one thing Craig’s List hasn’t siphoned off yet.

One place you won’t find any help is, of course, at the bank. Any bank.

Despite the billions in goodwill the American taxpayer gave the banks for their ruinous behavior, the banks now turn around to that very same taxpayer looking for loan modification and screech: “F--- you.”

In fact, one retired loan officer told me that she’s been getting calls from former clients asking what they can do to work with their bank to stay in their home. She’s discovered that the banks don’t give a damn about your problems. (As if they ever did.) She said the banks are just writing off the losses and collecting the properties. And she is disgusted with them.

It’s what I predicted when the bankruptcy laws were re-written during the Bush Administration. We’re witnessing the greatest land grab since the Great Depression.

Who benefits? The very rich, of course. They’re swooping in and picking up those vacant subdivisions throughout Bend for a third of the asking price.

And it’s not going to look any better anytime soon.

The reason? The other shoe is about to drop.

“There is a commercial real estate crisis on the horizon, and there are no easy solutions to the risks commercial real estate may pose to the financial system and the public," says a report issued Thursday by the Congressional Oversight Panel, the bailout watchdog led by Harvard Law professor and middle-class advocate Elizabeth Warren.

This is from the Huffington Post: “Over the next five years, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms and require new financing. Nearly half are ‘underwater,’ meaning the borrower owes more than the property is worth. Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent nationally since their 2007 peak. Vacancy rates are up and rents are down, further driving down the value of these properties.”

Bend, of course, is poised to be a poster child for this crisis, too. Vacant commercial properties litter the landscape like cardboard boxes.

The bottom just seems to get deeper and deeper.

A super Sunday

Not the game, but my drive back to Bend from Eugene.

Dark clouds and rain mixed with bright sunshine. A beautiful paradox. Brilliant rainbows guided our way home.

It also helped that gas prices here are considerably cheaper than they are in the Willamette Valley.

I filled up at Fred Meyer for $2.55 per gallon, using my 3-cent discount, of course. The cheapest I saw in Eugene-Springfield was $2.83.

My, how times have changed. It seems like only yesterday when those numbers were reversed.

It’s odd reading The (Bend) Bulletin when they list gas prices in our area. They just throw a handful of stations in a list that never show the lowest prices which are usually Arco and Fred Meyer.

The TV stations do a better job by showing the highs and lows in the region.

Thank god we haven’t heard the whining about self-serve gasoline in our full-serve state.

In California, a self-serve state, the cheapest you’ll find is $2.75 in Yuba City, which is considered the worst place to live in America. It’s more than 3 bucks a gallon in the Bay Area and nearly $3 a gallon in the L.A. area.

In Washington, another self-serve state, the statewide median price for regular is $2.83. It’s more the $2.90 a gallon in Bellingham.

For those out there who still struggle with math, the gas prices in California and Washington, where you can stink up your hands and clothes when you fill up, are much higher than those in Bend.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Toyota’s troubles

As if there hasn’t been enough coverage of troubles with Toyota’s accelerators on many of its vehicles and with brakes on the 2010 Prius, I’ll chime in that Toyota still makes some of the best vehicles in the world.

And, if I had any money, I’d buy a Prius right away.

My 1995 Camry needed its first brake job at around 143,000 miles. The factory battery died after 7 years. Show me an American car ever to achieve such durability. It’s still running with more than 150,000 miles on it. Never had an American car do that without needing either a new engine or transmission.

It should be noted in all this media frenzy that the Toyota accelerator trouble is an American problem. Toyotas made in Japan have no such issue.

When we bought our Camry in 1995, we made sure it was made in Japan. Likewise, when we bought our Honda CR-V in 2008, the VIN number starts with a J signifying made in Japan. I would urge all Americans, if they want a more reliable vehicle, to choose one made in Japan over anything made in America. Also, go to the repair shops at the dealerships. They’ll tell that American-made Toyotas or Hondas have more quality problems than the Japanese-made versions.

In this country, we plan for things to break down so that the supply chain never stops. Well, those chickens finally came home to roost this past year as GM and Chrysler went into bankruptcy.

Yes, the Prius with the faulty brakes is a Japanese Toyota problem and one that, I’m sure, will be addressed and solved in no time.

The Japanese automakers make quality products unrivaled by any of its American counterparts. Like many Americans, I’ve owned American and Japanese vehicles. We have spoken with our pocketbooks that we prefer Japanese over American and, certainly, European-made cars, which are are overpriced.

Part of the reason for the decline in automobiles made in this country is that it is hard to get reliable information about these vehicles. Daily newspapers run “advertorial” sections on automobiles that seldom tell readers what they need to know about vehicles. These sections are just ads in another format. Trade magazines are sponsored by the auto industry so the information in those publications is merely P.R.

American automobile manufacturers have always viewed their quality problems as a marketing issue. Consequently, while P.R. campaigns became more sophisticated, the vehicle quality declined and sales plummeted.

It didn’t help that in this anti-government era when everything must be privatized or cut back, government vehicle pools, largely supplied by American automakers, dried up. With those sales gone, there were few left to buy GM, Chrysler or Ford products. Ford may be in better shape than the other two brands, but their products are second rate next to the Japanese.

Yes, the underdogs love it when the top dog, Toyota, gets its lumps. Don’t be gloating too long, because Toyota will leave you in the dust.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

The lost decade – in film

From terrorism to wars, from economic collapse to natural disasters, the Aughties were a terrible decade. Thank god they’re over.

Another reason to forget this past decade is the movies that won the Academy Award for best picture.

In many ways, the winning films mirror the Aughties: violent, harsh, a little schizophrenic and, ultimately, meaningless. It got so bad that Hollywood had to nominate 10 films this year for the first time since 1943. That means there will be nine films instead of four that I probably haven’t seen. Actually, I did a little better this year. I saw two of the nominess.

Here’s the list of the Aughties’ “winners”:

2000: “Gladiator” – A video game movie. Long on ultra-violence and gore and short on substance and meaning.

2001: “A Beautiful Mind” – Almost as unstable as its subject. What appeared to be a clever ruse to experience the madness of Nobel Prize-winning mathematician John Nash, turned out to be confusing and disingenuous. Is there a reality in the film that can be trusted? No. And that’s a little dishonest.

2002: “Chicago” – A fun musical that has the audience rooting for conniving vixens. It represents the decade well since the bad “guys” win.

2003: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” – The final chapter of the Tolkien trilogy that proved to be one long, mega-violent video game. Well made, but too much dizzying camera work. Has anyone figured out what it all meant? I sure haven't.

2004: “Million Dollar Baby”: A brutal, bloody boxing film of a female pugilist who ends up paralyzed from the neck down and begs to put out of her misery. That’s entertainment?

2005: “Crash” – The decade’s best film about our widening racial divides. Tackles the tough issues of our time and still manages to be hopeful. A rare triumph.

2006: “The Departed” – Boilerplate work from Martin Scorsese. Mean and violent. No one to root for. It won because the Academy felt that a Scorsese film was due. Not for this one, though. “Babel,” another nominated film, was the definitive post-9/11 film of the decade. Haunting, sobering and sad.

2007: “No Country For Old Men” – A disturbingly violent film from the Coen brothers who won because, again, the Academy thought they were due. Josh Brolin was excellent as was Oscar-winner Javier Bardem, who played a Grim Reaper, bringing death to most he meets. The character of the decade.

2008: “Slumdog Millionaire” – Cruel, gripping, unsettling look at modern India, which is not likely to use this flick to promote tourism. It’s a cross between the TV game show “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” and the holocaust film, “Schindler’s List.” In that way, it was emblematic of the decade. In spite of great acting and filmmaking, it’s hard to recommend.

2009: The nominees are: “Avatar,” “The Hurt Locker,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “Inglorious Basterds,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” and “Up in the Air.”

I’ve seen two of the nominees, “Avatar” and “Up in the Air.”

“Avatar,” the 3-D sci-fi epic, is now the highest-grossing film of all time. The premise, the exploitation of indigenous people and the devastation of their land by an imperialistic country, which happens to be the U.S., is timeless and instructive. The special effects are astonishing. Still, it seemed like a bit of “Transformers” or “District 9” crashed the party and the film, at times, was no more than a noisy, violent video game. In that way, “Avatar” should win best picture as a bookend to “Gladiator.” Movies, now, must mirror “reality” presented by Xbox and Playstation. And, the only video game I understand is “Solitaire” on my computer.

The other nominee, “Up in the Air,” certainly captures the spirit of the times since it is about a man who goes around firing people from companies who are too spineless to do it themselves. George Clooney is great, but I never felt truly moved by this film as I should have been. Part of the reason is that no character is truly empathetic, except the ones who are fired. Too bad one of them was not a lead character.

So, what does this past decade mean for the next one in cinema? Well, we can expect more loud, violent movies that look like video games on the big screen. Perhaps, instead of 3-D glasses, moviegoers will get joysticks or video game consoles to interact with the films. Will this help cure our national epidemic of obesity?

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Groundhog Day - Long winter of discontent

Another downtown Bend restaurant has closed. Ciao Mambo, part of a small Italian restaurant chain, shut its doors late last week. This is sad news, but expected since Olive Garden opened recently.

Also, Ameritech Machine Manufacturing in Redmond went belly-up leaving 45 without work. Unfortunately, this long winter will prove to be the undoing of more small, and medium-sized businesses in the region.

And, it has nothing to do with the tax hikes passed last month by an overwhelming majority of voters. No, it’s the reality of the Great Recession.

We’ve seen this movie before. The groundhog saw his shadow.

Bend has always depended on the economy outside the region. When that economy is bad, so is Bend’s. This time around, instead of putting all its eggs in the basket of wood products, Central Oregon bet everything on the continued growth in the local housing market. When that collapsed, so did the local economy.

If voters had rejected the tax measures, there would have been hundreds of layoffs in the region of family-wage jobs because many teachers, police and other government workers faced the ax. And, for each of those family-wage jobs lost there would have been a doubling or even tripling effect because the loss would trickle down to local small businesses.

Unemployment and underemployment in Central Oregon is well over 20 percent. The state is one of three, along with California and Michigan, to have 20 percent unemployment/underemployment.

Part of the reason is that Oregon does not feed at the trough of the bloated military budget. There are no military bases in the state and too few military-related contractors.

Also, Oregon has yet to realize that education, all the way through post-graduate research, is the real ticket to economic stability.

Bend Councilor Jim Clinton, a physicist, is proposing a research center for Bend. He’s on the right track, but until business gets on board, there is no chance of it happening here. Bend should target its research with a facility at Central Oregon Community College geared toward sports medicine. With so many Olympic-caliber athletes residing in Bend, the area is a natural for such a facility. In the 1990s, Nike was rumored to consider a multi-sport complex in Bend. Again, this area, with its focus on skiing, snowboarding, cycling, golf, running and other outdoor pursuits, is perfect for it. We likely won’t see anything like this soon because the area is too narrowly focused on housing development. That’s where most of the tax breaks go and much of the government subsidies as well.

Punxsutawney Phil says it’s time to keep hibernating along with our economy.

Yet, more trains are whistling and rumbling through Bend while clogging rush hour commutes. Is that more of a sign of an early economic spring than a Pennsylvania groundhog?

Monday, February 1, 2010

Do deficits matter? (And other taxing issues)

Former Vice President Dick Cheney once said that deficits don’t matter. He uttered what many Republicans practice in private, but usually rail against in public. What he meant to say is that deficits don’t matter under Republican administrations, but they are devastating under Democratic administrations.

Now, that President Obama’s $3.8 trillion budget is out there, the predictable hand-wringing by Republicans begins anew. And, Obama is burnishing his “hawk” credentials by increasing the military budget by 3.4 percent from $530.8 billion to $548.9 billion. Naturally, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with gobble up another $159.3 billion. To Republicans this amounts to a gutting of the military.

It’s amazing to realize that the deficit will reach nearly $1.6 trillion, the third year in a row that it’s been over a trillion. President Clinton left President George W. Bush a budget surplus in 2001. My, how times have changed.

The deficit business really accelerated under President Reagan when he cut the top tax rate from 60 percent to 40 percent, but then amplified spending by borrowing with no plan to ever pay it back. Yes, he did raise taxes, but on those on the bottom and middle tiers of the tax spectrum. Consequently, the deficit soared and the country partied on.

Many Americans took Reagan’s cue about borrowing and spending by borrowing and spending themselves. If the government isn’t worried about debt, why should anyone else.

Now, as usual, we here talk about “living within our means.” What this means is for government/corporations to borrow most of the capital available out there, while everyone else must scrimp and save, as if they haven’t been scrimping and saving.
Banks and “investment” firms are spending so freely on themselves, through bonuses, that they don’t even have any money left for their stock investors.

The system depends on the rubes (most common citizens) to rein in their spending, pay their mortgages and credit card bills so that this pyramid scheme can keep growing. As we do, government and, mainly, corporations, laugh at us. Once we realize we can act as irresponsibly as government and corporations do, the system will truly collapse.

Of course, banks accused middle and lower class Americans of racking up debts through spending on flat-panel TVs, iPhones and dining out. So, they had the bankruptcy laws re-written to prevent Americans from walking away from such credit card debts. However, credit card default is mostly triggered by spending on health care, because we don’t have universal health care. This meant that while health insurance companies passed out their bonuses for denying coverage, millions of Americans went bankrupt.

And today, I paid another government bill for “stormwater service” that amounts to $48 a year and was assessed on all households. This caused no belly-aching from the usual quarters (the daily newspaper, builders/real estate associations) because it pushed the cost away from the people who are causing the need for this fee – the developers. There is no stormwater service in Bend because there is no stormwater piping system. No, this money helps subsidize developers.

Also, this weekend, I ate an early dinner at the new Olive Garden restaurant in Bend. At 4 p.m., the place was swamped and the wait for a table was 45 minutes. It took about 25 minutes, but still, we’re in the middle of the Great Recession. What was everyone (or I) doing there? We’re still living it up, because, afterall, deficits don’t matter.

Our waiter said about 110 people work there throughout the day. In all, about 165, mostly part-timers, work there making between $8.40 to $11 an hour, plus tips. I wonder what kind of tax break Olive Garden got for creating so many jobs. Afterall, Facebook will receive $2.8 million a year in tax breaks for opening a data center, with 35 employees, in Prineville next year. Well, Olive Garden didn't get such a break because they didn't create "family wage" jobs.

The Bulletin, the daily newspaper, did note this past weekend in an article titled, “The Facebook Effect,” that one other company inquired to the state about relocating here and, presumably, getting a similar, or better, tax break than Facebook got. The article did say that Facebook will pay about $110,000 as a “community fee,” plus lesser city fees. The “Facebook Effect” is so amazing that the company even joined the local Chamber of Commerce. It also had a Bend restaurant cater its Jan. 21 announcement event.

Can we all feel the end of the recession now?