Could tax measures pass?

According to a recent poll, Measures 66 and 67 could squeak by next Tuesday, Jan. 26.

This is shocking because Oregon is libertarian when it comes to taxes. The only statewide measures that pass are ones that reduce or shift the tax burden. A sales tax proposal has been shot down nine times over the years. The major newspapers, including The Oregonian, have railed against the measures, but with fewer subscribers than even a year ago, newspapers have much less influence over voters.

Still, with a week out, the negative side will bombard the airwaves and a defeat on both measures is more than likely.

The anti-tax crowd started to increase the frequency of their attacks this past weekend. The pro side is still there, but they’ve been consistent for a few weeks now. This strategy may pay off. Pollster Tim Hibbitts believes the measures will narrowly pass, but with his poll showing the negative side losing, it may spur those voters to get their ballots in. The anti-tax crowd wants all the necessary social services, but also lower and lower taxes. Hey, it's counter-intuitive, but that's their beliefs.

Measure 66 would increase taxes for household making more than $250,000 and single earners more than $125,000. This affects less than 3 percent of Oregon’s taxpayers. According to the poll, 52 percent say they favor it, while 39 percent do not.

Measure 67 increases corporate taxes, which haven’t been raised since 1931. Yes, the minimum tax, which many major corporations pay, is a mere $10. An effective ad says that banks charge more in one late fee than they pay in taxes. Surprisingly, the poll shows this one even closer with 50 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed.

What could turn the tide is the effect of the non-voter who believes that a double majority is required when, in fact, it is not.

As of Jan. 19, turnout stood at about 34 percent in Deschutes County, slightly above average for a special election. If non-voters sit on the sidelines this could prove pivotal as a swing of just 5,000 votes could be the difference.

Here’s hoping that potential “no” voters choose not to send in their ballots and the anti-tax crowd loses. That would be sweet.

It would not only stave off disastrous cuts to social services including schools, but also, more importantly, it would re-affirm the Legislature’s right to govern the state, even if it means higher taxes on those who can most afford them. If the naysayers don’t like it, they can vote in other Legislators next time around. It’s called democracy.