Oscar predictions: Do we care?

Making films that matter.

That's what has been missing in recent years at the Academy Awards in its annual self-love fest.

This year, though, we have an acclaimed Iraqi war movie, the first of its kind, called "The Hurt Locker."

It has an outside chance to win best picture. It likely will not because it is hard for Hollywood to overlook the $2.5 billion James Cameron's "Avatar" has brought to the business. Plus, "Avatar" is a game-changer in terms of movie technology.

A dark horse is "Up in the Air," but with 10 films in consideration for the first time since the early 1940s, it's safe to say that the vote will be more fragmented than ever, which favors "Avatar."

But, Cameron won't win for best direction because he is not well-liked by actors, the major voting block in the Academy. Kathryn Bigelow, Cameron's ex-wife, should win for "The Hurt Locker," the lowest grossing film of the nominees. If she does, it'll be a first for a woman director. It's about time.

The best actor category is unusually loaded this year with solid performances by Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, Jeremy Renner and George Clooney. Bridges, for "Crazy Heart," seems to be due for his overall body of work. He does get to sing one of the best lyrics: "I used to be somebody, now I'm somebody else.

Sandra Bullock should win for best actress for "The Blind Side" in a category that should be named after Meryl Streep, who is nominated for a record 16th time for "Julie and Julia." The award can't always go to Streep, she's only won twice, but it probably should. Only Kathy Bates, Emma Thompson or Hilary Swank are in her league.

Christoph Waltz should win best supporting actor for "Inglourious Basterds," Quentin Tarantino's bizarre take on World War II.

Best supporting actress could be the surprise category. Two actresses from "Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, are nominated, which dooms their chances. Maggie Gyllenhaal is getting buzz for "Crazy Heart," but I think Mo'Nique will win for "Precious." Ya gotta love those one-named actresses.

Those are the categories most viewers care about.

Best screenplay or best adapted screenplay are so disdained by the Academy that they'll likely get booted in the future to the Academy's technical awards show, which isn't broadcast live, if at all.

Still, Tarantino thinks he should win best original screenplay for "Inglourious Basterds," and he may since it shows Jews killing Nazis, but I think Mark Boal for "The Hurt Locker" has a good shot.

As for adapted screenplay, "Up in the Air" will likely win because the source material by Walter Kirn is so strong.

Hopefully, there will be some controversy or gaffe that is memorable from the evening, because the show is inherently boring. Too bad Michael Moore's "Capitalism: A Love Story" wasn't even nominated in the documentary category. He would've won and he would've stole the show.

What is great these days about the Academy Awards is the outrage it provokes from the "hatriots" on conservative talk radio or Fox News. As Stephen Colbert lampoons: "Films that are destroying America." What a hoot.

Here's the official list of nominees.