Sunday, June 3, 2012

Presidential race tightening

The money folks at Intrade show that the presidential race is indeed tightening.

Last month, President Obama was sitting pretty at around 60 with the Mitt-wit in the mid- to upper-30s.

Well, Obama is now down around 53.3 while Mitt is rising to 42.6.

Yes, things are trending in Mitt's favor,  even the national polls are moving his way, but he is still behind. When the odds for election is 54 to 43 at Intrade, it still favors Obama.

Plus, Real Clear Politics still has Obama at 237 electoral votes and only 170 EVs for Mitt.

This means that Obama needs only 33 EVs to win re-election. Mitt hasn't budged from 170.

Much has been written about the gubernatorial recall election in Wisconsin and what it means for the presidential race in November.

Prediction: Obama wins Wisconsin easily.

He also takes Michigan, which some see as in play. No way.

The battle, as always, is Ohio. Obama holds a tenuous lead at this point, but it is almost certain that Mitt will pick Ohio Sen. Rob Portman as his running mate so that he has a great chance in capturing the Buckeye State.

Nevermind that Portman is a lily-white male like Mitt. The only thing that matters is carrying the state of Ohio.

Mitt is assuming he'll carry Florida, even without Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate. But, it's an assumption Mitt can't afford to make.

The path to the White House, in electoral votes, is limited for Mitt. He knows it.

Mitt, though, is struggling to define himself to the electorate. The Obama campaign is doing a good job, like Bush II did to John Kerry, of defining Mitt. He's the type of person who destroyed our economy. Why would you want him back.

It's an accurate portrayal. Plus, the Obama campaign hasn't really exploited the fact the Mitt is a RINO, who championed Obamacare before Obama was even president. Or, the fact that Mitt "believes in America" so much that he keeps his money in foreign accounts. Or, that he is a leader in the Mormon church who could impose his Mormon beliefs upon America.

Mitt's negatives outweigh his positives.

Mitt knows that his fate rests on Ohio and Florida. If he loses either one, he has no chance of becoming president. If he wins both, he still needs Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico to break his way.

They won't and Mitt will lose.

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