Tuesday, June 12, 2012

The presidential race today

It always helps to have more information, rather than less (unless you're a Fox News devotee), to make informed decisions on the presidential race.

With that being said, I have to turn to the guru of political prognosticators, Nate Silver, for his near mid-June report.

Nate's Nov. 6 electoral vote count, as of 9:44 p.m. on June 12, was 289.4 for President Obama versus  248.6 for Mitt Romney.

Obviously, since it only takes 270 EVs to win the presidency, Obama is definitely ahead.

But, it is close.

Real Clear Politics, which skews conservative, shows Obama ahead of Romney by 221 to 170, with Obama having a 62 percent chance of winning.

This is similar to Intrade, which shows Obama at 53 percent to Romney's 43 percent.

Again, the popular vote at Nate's site, which shows a much closer race, 50.4 to 48.5, is irrelevant.

Over at CNN, which is a completely lost network, Obama has 247 EVs to Romney's 206.

The Huffington Post, which skews Democratic, shows Obama ahead, 270 to 191.

The national polls show a mixed bag and they don't really reflect that the battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia, will likely decide the next president. At RCP, Obama is ahead in Ohio and Virginia.

Meanwhile, it looks as if the Democrat will retain Gabby Giffords' seat in Arizona.

Thank god for small victories.

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