Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Four weeks away from E-day

As the presidential race tightens, Democrats are stunned to learn that President Obama squandered most of his lead after the first debate.

A new poll by Pew Research shows Mitt Romney up by 4 points nationally.

Likewise, a new poll from Gallup of "likely voters" rather than "registered voters" shows Romney up by 2 points nationally.

While these numbers give hope to Romney supporters, the national poll numbers are largely irrelevant.

The only polls that matter are in the swing states and there are only three left: Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Yes, those states are considered dead-even in a statistical sense, but Obama is leading, however tentatively, in Ohio and Virginia.

As I've noted before, Ohio is ground zero for both campaigns. If Romney loses Ohio, and I think he will, he loses the election. It does not matter one iota if he has a million more votes nationally.

As we discovered in 2000, when Al Gore had about 600,000 more votes than George W. Bush, the national popular vote means nothing.

It's all in the electoral votes (EV). This is where President Obama has the advantage. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com still projects President Obama winning about 296 EVs. You only need 270 EVs to win.

Still, if President Obama performs as poorly in the second debate as he did in the first, and there is concern he could, then he would be in big trouble.

Also, don't overlook the voter-suppression efforts of the GOP. There were a number of "irregularities" in Ohio in 2004 when the exit polls showed a clear John Kerry victory. Look for similar shenanigans from the Republican party in 2012.

In the meantime, here's a piece about how the Romney campaign mismanages its money. Where Team Obama spends $500 for a TV ad buy, Team Romney wastes $2,800 for the same time-slot.

Clearly, Romney is no economic whiz.

This is what mega-millionaires do. They piss money away, because they can.

Imagine, what Romney will do with your tax dollars. He'll throw them away and force you to give him more.

Time to shelter your money in the Cayman Islands before Mitt gets his mittens on them.

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